The Health of the Farm Economy: Farm Loan

According to the bank surveys that commercial agricultural about the farm economy. The fact shows that numerous measures to consider when thinking about the health of the farm economy. One of the most important is Farm Loan of plant support net. Farm loan delinquency data are split into two categories: non-real estate and real estate loans.  More precisely, these data are for the fourth quarter of the respective year, allowing for meaningful comparisons across years while avoiding issues with seasonality.

The share of farm non-real estate loans that were delinquent in the fourth quarter of 2017 was 1.65%. This was higher than the 2016 rate of 1.47%, and more than double 2014 levels (0.72%). While a headline noting farm bee net loan delinquencies doubling in three years would be alarming, it's worth considering the starting point. Farm delinquencies on non-real estate loans were at record-lows in 2014. In fact, current delinquency rates are among the lowest in more than 30 years. Historically, delinquencies have been lower than current levels only 10 out of the last 31 years, or 32% of the time.

When considering farm loan performance, a few key insights emerge. First, farm anti bird net loan delinquencies have turned higher in recent years. This likely isn't a surprise given the fall in commodity prices and farm income. Even though the share of loan delinquency has recently increased, current levels remain on the low range of historical observations. Specifically, the current rate for both non-real estate and real estate loans remains below the long-run average. Most of this is attributable to a strong farm economy heading into the current slowdown. The starting point matters.